Philippine stocks have done so well over 2012. I remember that after the first quarter this year people were already saying that the PSEi was expensive. Of course, we saw some consolidation on some days in 2Q and over a few weeks in Q3. At the beginning of Q4, it seems that momentum just kept stock prices going.
I guess investors do not want to be left out of this really. Fortunately for us who are already in the market, a large number of investors out there are only entering the game now. The strength of the market last week was completely flow driven. Those that have discovered Philippine stocks simply want to gain exposure.
It is not surprising that new players have entered our market. Macroeconomics seem to be in our favor with last week's GDP figure coming in at 7.1 percent. This is the strongest 3Q that I've seen for as long as I can remember. In the backdrop of growth rates of other countries in different regions of the world, the Philippine GDP growth rate provides stellar attraction. What gives me further encouragement is the expectation that the strong 3Q GDP growth should propel stronger growth momentum into 4Q which is seasonally our strongest quarter.
The first quarter of 2013 should also see growth well above the norm given that elections will be coming. This country has seen exceptional growth in 4 of the last 5 elections. I am expectant that the 2013 elections will even bring stronger growth than the 8 percent seen the quarter preceding the 2010 elections. What is encouraging about the latest GDP numbers is the strong gains seen in construction. This likely reflects infrastructure spending which government has started to embark on. Of course, private construction remains in full swing judging from the cranes that tower not just the NCR but other regions of the country as well.
Another reason for bright anticipation is the strengthening of the manufacturing sector reflected in the latest GDP. Signs of manufacturing revival have been seen in the Volume of Production Index. While there are many skeptics about manufacturing, I remain hopeful because with domestic consumption comprising over 70 percent of our economy, it makes sense for manufacturing activity to grow in tandem with demand. Anyway, banking and real estate transactions with the manufacturing sector point out that resources are being accumulated in manufacturing.
Where does this leave stock prices? Well, I think there will be a fair amount of profit taking. But rather than view it with anxiety, one should use it as an opportunity for beefing up old positions. It is time to go for growth stocks, and there are quite a few in the market.
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